Trade Risk Alert for September 18

World Tourism Organization: The number of international tourists plummeted by 65% ​​in the first half of the year. According to a report by Reuters in Madrid on September 15, the World Tourism Organization released data on the 15th that compared with last year, the number of international tourist arrivals plunged by 65% ​​in the first half of 2020, which is an estimated loss of 460 billion US dollars in export revenue. The data showed that total international tourist arrivals fell by 440 million from January to June this year, with the worst-affected Asia-Pacific region down 72 percent from last year; European arrivals down 66 percent; and Africa and the Middle East down 57 percent. %; the Americas fell 55%. (Reference News Network)

U.S. jobless claims for the week came close to expectations. On September 17, local time, the United States released data showing that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 12 recorded 860,000, the previous value was 893,000, and the expected 850,000, which fell slightly, slightly exceeding the expected value, still maintain high. (International Derivatives Think Tank)

Brazil's economy is expected to shrink by 6.5% in 2020. In its global economic outlook report released on the 16th, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for Brazil's economic growth in 2020 to -6.5% from -7.4% in June. According to the OECD forecast, Brazil's economy will grow by 3.6% in 2021, down 0.06 percentage points from the forecast three months ago. Brazil is not currently a member of the OECD, but the organization considers Brazil to be an important country and therefore often analyzes its economic situation. (Xinhua News Agency)

The Asian Development Bank lowered its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth to 1.8%. According to Vietnam's "Vietnam News" report on September 16: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered Vietnam's economic growth forecast for 2020 by 2.3 percentage points to 1.8%. The ADB had forecast in June that Vietnam could achieve economic growth of 4.1 percent in 2020. (Ministry of Commerce website)

Japan's core CPI fell year-on-year in August. According to a report released by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on the 18th, Japan's core consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, was 101.3 on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, down 0.4% year-on-year. This figure fell again after the previous two consecutive months of flat year-on-year. (Xinhua News Agency)

China-India trade volume fell sharply in the second quarter, and Chinese companies' investment in India halved year-on-year. According to India's "Business Standard" report on the 17th, Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Goyal mentioned in a written reply to a parliamentary question that the trade volume between India and China in the second quarter of this year fell from about 21.42 billion US dollars in the same period last year to about 16.55 billion. In U.S. dollars, India's trade deficit with China also fell to about $5.48 billion from about $13.1 billion last year. India's investment in China in fiscal 2017 was about US$49.2 million, which plummeted to about US$12.6 million in fiscal 2018, but rebounded to about US$27.6 million in fiscal 2019, and is expected to be around US$20.63 million in fiscal 2020. (World Wide Web)

Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce Fair Trade Office

September 18, 2020